ExpCapital Market ert: Fundamental reform in the capital market, a strong signal for the rise in currency prices

The capital market expert said that sending the slightest sign of a fundamental reform in the capital market would be a strong signal for the exchange rate to rise. "The main factor that can lead to the growth of the stock market in this situation is government support," he said.

Regarding the outlook for foreign exchange prices, Ali Dehdashti said: "Considering the economic conditions we are facing this year and the government budget deficit, which according to the Minister of Economy is 140,000 billion tomans in the most pessimistic conditions, and of course solutions such as transferring assets, printing bonds and obtaining The tax is intended to cover it, but every year when the government faces a budget deficit, the exchange rate inevitably rises.

He continued: "Due to the fact that the pressure of sanctions on the country's economy has increased this year and due to the conditions of the corona outbreak, sending oil exports and transferring funds from these exports have faced many problems and oil prices have been declining, price increases Currency seems inevitable, although the government tries to prevent the exchange rate from rising and to some extent controlled it, but at times it becomes uncontrollable.
Dehdashti added: "The capital market has more or less included this issue in the stock price and has foreseen part of this movement and alternative value, especially in asset-based symbols. As soon as the slightest signal of fundamental reform is sent in the capital market, a strong signal for The price of the currency will rise, even if it does not, at least it will cause the price of the currency to rise more or less with a slight slope.

Regarding the trend of the index, he said: "The index touched one of its Fibonacci targets in the past week. In fact, the height of 1,124,000 units was one of the important levels of Fibonacci, which the index fed from the previous wave for this movement."

He continued: "The index touched this target during the last week and became negative. Considering that this target already existed in the minds of market analysts, this mentality led to reactions to this target and the upward trend of the trend." Stop or show a slight corrective reaction.

Dehdashti added: "Of course, the total index was able to pass this resistance and there is a resistance zone in the channel of one million and 160 thousand to one million and 180 thousand units, which is a strong resistance zone and is obtained from the intersection of two different Fibonacci waves. Will show more correction in this range.

Government support, a prerequisite for stock market growth

Ali Dehdashti, a capital market expert, said that the upward trend of the index continues: "The positive point in the current situation of the capital market has been and is government support. Many fundamental factors have shaped the rapid upward movement of the index over the past two or three months, including The influx of liquidity, replacement value, inflation, declining bank interest rates and rising exchange rates, henceforth the main factor that can drive market growth is government support. He stressed: As long as the government needs the capital market, the upward trend will continue.

Forecast the trend of the total stock index

Regarding the forecast of commodities, he added: "The value of the dollar index weakened a bit last week, and this caused the prices of commodities to grow, because the two are inversely related to each other. Last week, commodity prices were not only a growing trend." However, after falling due to the outbreak of the Corona virus, it found strong support in metals such as copper and zinc. It seems that further weakening of the dollar index leads to the growth of commodities, and mainly in metals such as zinc and copper, a strong resistance is reached. And if it breaks these resistance levels, the $ 6300 range in copper or the $ 220 zinc range can be predicted, for example, so the important question now is how long the weakness of the dollar index will continue to drive commodity growth.

Ali Dehdashti, referring to the medium-term uptrend in commodities, said: "It seems that the mid-term uptrend in commodities, but there is still doubt about their long-term trend, given that in the last sixty years, all developing countries Negative economic growth is unprecedented, and if the disease debate continues, economies may still not be able to rebuild until 2021, but in the medium term we are likely to have an uptrend.

In the end, Dehdashti said: "The point about domestic commodity-based companies is that if the price of commodities increases in the medium term, but decreases in the long run, on the other hand, an increase in the exchange rate and the commodity exchange rate can compensate for this decrease